Does the interest rate of the booklet need a little going up?

Edit of December 13, 2021: "The rate of the booklet will increase in January," said Bruno Le Maire on Monday, without specifying how much.The Ministry of the Economy specified in the process that the increase in the rate will be proposed by the government in January and will take place on February 1.On this occasion, 20 minutes offers you to re -read this inventory on the booklet has loss of speed and the savings of the French.

Is the booklet A flowing?In October 2021, the French withdrew more money than they deposited on this savings account, a first since October 2020. This difference of less than 2.83 billion euros between what was spared and thisWho has been spent is also the largest decollect in seven years.Coincidence? The government plans to straighten the interest rate in early 2022. A panic movement linked to savings that would have lost all benefit in the eyes of the French, with its 0.5 %starry, unchanged since February 2020?

Rest assured, the booklet A is fine, thank you for him!Since the start of the health crisis in March 2020, the French have deposited more than 40 billion euros there, proof of their attachment to this account.If October recorded a negative balance, the first ten months of 2021 saw savings increase by 16.96 billion euros, or 3.5 billion more than the first ten months of 2019, pre-crisis.The recent decollect would therefore be more a return to normal than to a collapse of the credibility of the booklet A.

October, cursed month for savings

These expenses were facilitated by three factors.First, October is a month that comes up often when it comes to emptying your accounts."This is the cursed month," confirms Philippe Crevel, director of the Savings Circle, Center for Studies and Information on Savings and Retirement at 20 minutes.The reasons are multiple: latest purchases for school supplies and first preparations for Christmas, local taxes, purchases for accommodation for winter and absence of premium, traditionally reserved for June and December.Due to this loss/back -to -school balance in the negative, it is common to see the French draw from their savings.

To this is added a second reason, specific to 2021: inflation.With an inflation rate at 2.6 % in October, prices increased faster than wages, but also much faster than the remuneration of booklet A and its interest rate at 0.5 %."It is much more profitable to get the money out and spend it now in purchases that will cost more as you expect," analyzes Stéphanie Villers, an economist specializing in macroeconomics for 20 minutes.For her, far from being a movement of panic, the decollect of October shows on the contrary that the French, nor fundamentally cicada or ant, "have common sense in their management of money and are pragmatic".

Fifth wave, new savings?

Last reason - and proof that things evolve quickly - October was the month of good news.A small number of coronavirus cases, declining unemployment, strong job creations."The period was tranquilizing and prompted the French to consume," says Philippe Crevel.

But now November hunted October and its share of positivity.A fifth wave of Covid is sweeping over Europe, while a new very disturbing South African variant has appeared.Faced with this bad news, the world's grants unscrew and the French could again be tempted by the reassuring side of savings, a fortiori if the government enhances the interest rate of booklet A - a rate revised at 0.7 or0.8 % would be envisaged by February 2022.

Simple calculation, complex balance

According to the classic interest rate calculation, with an inflation of 2 % over the year, according to forecasts, and an interbank rate of around -0.5 %, the interest rate should be 0.75 %."But this is a purely informal calculation, the government decides - or not - to follow it," notes Philippe Crevel.The executive may as much decide not to move the interest rate of booklet A as to fix it at 1 % for example.The problem could be to make the booklet has too tempting in times of crisis and uncertainty and therefore to boost savings, therefore hampering the consumption of French essential to growth.

"The government is caught up in the opposite winds," metaphorizes Stéphanie Villers.On the one hand, rampant inflation in France, which pushes the executive to lend a hand to French households, on the other the crisis of the covid which resumes, forcing to be wary of an over-sparrow harmful tothe economy.Still in the image, Stéphanie Villers continues: "You have to dosage to restart the machine without making it get carried away.»»

Malin – ou calculateur en vue de la présidentielle 2022​ –, le gouvernement s’est donné une marge puisqu’il ne devrait toucher au taux d’intérêt qu’au début de l’année prochaine, lui laissant le temps d’analyser les tendances de fin d’année. Toute la question sera de voir qui de la cinquième vague ou de l’inflation se sera calmée d’ici-là. Pour cette dernière, Stéphanie Villers note déjà des signes d’accalmie au niveau de la hausse des prix et estime que cette montée ne pourrait être que transitoire. Rien ne dit donc que le taux du livret A bougera. C’est toute la difficulté de l’épargne en économie : devoir être rentable, mais pas trop non plus.